5th Congressional Candidates Part 3

Yesterday we discussed candidates that were mid level and today we discuss the front runners.

The top 2 by far in this race is Jeff Hartline and CeCe Heil. These 2 have vast differences but also have similarities in their campaigns. Their tactics and strategic moves have put them at the top of a crowded field if history is any teacher.

CeCe Heil is a very articulate and pleasant person to meet. She has a dedication to this race that many people who run for office do not possess or lose when they win. She has a history of Constitutional law which we desperately need (although she admits that she froze up in the debate when asked to list the enumerated powers). I do not believe that the freeze up is a reflection of how she would be when pressed in an emergency situation as a congressman.

Jeff Hartline is a very strong presence on the campaign trail. He presents himself in a way that is very in control (most times) and really wants to be the first republican to win the 5th district since prior to the Reconstruction. Jeff, like CeCe, has a group of dedicated family and volunteers who are at every function doing what needs to be done to win the vote.

Jeff also had a moment at the debate where, I am sure he wishes could be recalled and redone. During a give and take with another candidate Jeff did become irritated over his stated energy policy. This give and take was, according to the cadidate, a misunderstanding over the timeline of the policy (after researching it I have come to agree with the Hartline camp about a stated energy tax policy. It is not an increase in taxes.)

Both of the aforementioned candidates have come from obscurity to lead a pack of candidates that all have good intentions and all to some degree bring qualities to the race.

I mentioned in the last article that there are a few spoilers and a tea party surprise in the race. Let me break them down for you.

Bob Schwartz is a spoiler for Jeff Hartline. Bob appeals to the same voters as Jeff and the more he comes out swinging against Jeff the more Jeff has to defend himself over things. Bob knows he has nothing to lose and will do whatever it takes to knock Jeff out of the driver's seat.

David Hall, on the other hand, will pull from CeCe. David appeals to the more conservative evangelicals as does the Heil campaign. David does not have a lot of support but the voters he has are desperately needed by the Heil campaign.

Finally, there is what I have taken to calling the Tea Party Surprise and that is the Spivak Campaign. If you had asked me 4 weeks ago about this campaign I would have told you they had no shot at winning and to a degree they still do not BUT Lonnie Spivak can very well help determine who will win the race. For weeks, Lonnie has been courting the Tea Party people all across the country and his efforts paid off. Lonnie received Tea Party endorsements and grumblings through the political grapevine say others are coming in a matter of days that will help move Spivak into a spoiler's role. Lonnie will pull votes from all the candidates but the one who will be affected most is CeCe. CeCe is seen as a second choice to the Tea Party movement that has rallied around Lonnie's campaign.

Finally money plays in to all of this. Jeff is out raised his closest opponent almost 5 to 1. He has the money to take to the airwaves like no other candidate can. CeCe has a lot less money and it shows in the media buys that have been made but do not count them out because they are stronger in the new media arena than the Hartline campaign.

If this were a 2 man race and Jeff and CeCe were the candidates with all the same strategies and moves CeCe would win that race. But, as we all know this is not that race and given all that is going on with all the people and all the factions pulling votes it appears to me that the winner will be Jeff Hartline in a squeaker against CeCe Heil. Whoever wins will have a heck of a time against Cooper and will need the help of all the people who have worked to make this race of of the most contested in the State of Tennessee.

The above article will be made totally false if God has a different plan. In all things we need to serve Him and seek His will (I have to admit it is good when my predictions match His will.)